According to the Roaring Fork Valley real estate market spreadsheet below, up-valley (Aspen & Snowmass) continues to show lower numbers this year than shown last year. Last year, the statistics were saying we had hit bottom and were heading back up because the 2011 stats were much better than the 2010 stats. At that time, no one was predicting 2012 would show a drop in the numbers from 2011. Everyone, including me, was predicting 2012 would prove to be the big turnaround year. However, when one drills down on the numbers, one finds that one thing that skews the Aspen numbers is the fact that during the first three quarters of 2011 there were 14 sales north of $10M while during the first three quarters of 2012 there have been only 9. The 14 sales totaled $200,099,500 whereas the 9 sales totaled $132,950,000 making a significant difference of $67,149,500 less dollar sales from these large sales in 2012 versus 2011.

The mid-valley market (Basalt/El Jebel) is hot. Not only are its numbers considerably up for closed transactions, but we are seeing signs of a continued upward trend. There are currently 52 transactions under contract in Basalt. This is a huge backlog considering there has been 119 closed transactions through the fist three quarters of 2012 which has produced a 26.14% increase of over 2011. Certainly, the low prices caused by distressed sales, close proximity to Aspen/Snowmass and the opening of Whole Foods in August are all contributing to the high demand for Baalt properties.

Like Basalt,  the Carbondale market has been hot this year. The 2012 3rd quarter number in relation to 2011 is somewhat misleading. The sale of the Wing Ranch above River Valley Ranch for $9,950,000 in August of 2011 skews the Carbondale numbers. If that one transaction is taken out of the calculations, Carbondale dollar sales went up 40.14% in the 3rd quarter of this year over the same period last year instead of down by 20.32% as reflected in the spreadsheet below. Again, like Basalt, Carbondale currently has a large number of transactions (46) under contract showing an upward trend.

Town 2011 Q1 Number of Average 2012 Q1 Number of Average % $ Change
  $ Total Trans Trans Size $ Total Trans Trans Size 2011 vs
  RE Trans     RE Trans     2012
               
Aspen 202,542,000 43 4,133,000 122,496,000 49 2,499,918 -39.52%
Snowmass Village 44,944,000 15 2,042,000 29,313,000 22 1,332,409 -34.78%
Basalt/El Jebel 11,201,000 19 589,000 14,070,000 36 390,833 25.61%
Carbondale 13,397,000 16 837,313 12,146,000 33 368,061 -9.34%
               
Town 2011 Q2 Number of Average 2012 Q2 Number of Average % $ Change
  $ Total Trans Trans Size $ Total Trans Trans Size 2011 vs
  RE Trans     RE Trans     2012
               
Aspen 290,116,355 74 3,920,491 211,227,738 67 3,152,653 -27.19%
Snowmass Village 76,672,326 36 2,129,787 47,448,967 33 1,437,847 -38.11%
Basalt/El Jebel 20,648,570 47 439,331 23,618,800 54 437,385 14.38%
Carbondale 14,980,176 31 483,231 28,791,679 65 442,949 92.20%
               
Town 2011 Q3 Number of Average 2012 Q3 Number of Average % $ Change
  $ Total Trans Trans Size $ Total Trans Trans Size 2011 vs
  RE Trans     RE Trans     2012
               
Aspen 142,575,548 45 3,168,346 204,996,270 68 3,014,651 43.78%
Snowmass Village 25,091,500 16 1,568,219 20,884,000 11 1,898,545 -16.77%
Basalt/El Jebel 18,578,704 32 580,585 23,618,800 45 524,862 27.13%
Carbondale
23,060,780
26 1,037,492 18,374,500 42 437,488 -20.32%
               
Town 2011 First Number of Average 2012 First Number of Average % $ Change
  3 Qtrs $ Total Trans Trans Size 3 Qtrs $ Total Trans Trans Size 2011 vs
  RE Trans     RE Trans     2012
               
Aspen 562,093,704 144 3,903,429 491,377,040 163 3,014,583 -12.58%
Snowmass Village 131,191,326 64 2,049,864 83,233,967 52 1,600,653 -36.56%
Basalt/El Jebel 45,961,674 91 505,073 57,977,372 119 487,205 26.14%
Carbondale 47,472,956 66 719,287 53,991,753 124 435,417 13.73%